Senior Economist - Economic Modeling & Policy Analysis - TJ / 1893601

Our client Faysal Bank Ltd is looking for a Senior Economist - Economic Modeling & Policy Analysis in Karachi

Faysal Bank Ltd is seeking a highly skilled Senior Economist with a strong background in economic modeling, statistical analysis, and policy research. The ideal candidate holds a PhD in Economics, Financial Economics, or Econometrics from a recognized institution and possesses at least five years of relevant experience. This role requires an expert understanding of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) regulatory framework and Basel II and III standards. The Senior Economist will provide deep insights into the macro-financial landscape of Pakistan, focusing on the banking sector and policy environment, to guide strategic planning and risk management.

This position involves conducting detailed economic research, policy analysis, and stress testing related to capital adequacy management and assessment. The Senior Economist is responsible for delivering forecasts and assessments that support regulatory compliance and financial stability, while working collaboratively within the bank's broader economic and risk teams. As this role does not manage a team, it focuses on individual contributions with a high level of technical expertise and analytical rigor.

Responsibilities

1 Macroeconomic Research, Forecasting & Scenario Analysis

• Develop and maintain baseline macroeconomic forecasts for Pakistan, covering GDP growth, inflation (CPI), the SBP policy rate forecast, exchange-rate paths, the external account, fiscal position and key monetary aggregates.
• Assist Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) team in constructing multi-tier stress scenarios (mild, medium and severe), including rate paths, foreign-exchange assumptions and major commodities / oil-price trajectories, for use across the Banks risk and capital planning.
• Monitor SBP monetary policy, global macro-financial conditions and geopolitical developments, and aid Strategy function in translating their implications for the Banks balance sheet and earnings.
• Build, document and periodically validate the economic and econometric models that support the above.
  
  

2 Risk Appetite Calibration & Stress Testing

• Assist ERM team in calibrating Risk Appetite thresholds against the macroeconomic scenarios that underpin each risk type, ensuring that qualitative appetite statements are operationalised into defensible, measurable limits.
• Design the stress scenario inputs that feed ICAAP, IRRBB, liquidity, credit-loss and capital-adequacy assessments.
• Support the CRO in constructing and updating the Risk Appetite Statement, and contribute the economic narrative behind RAG (green / amber / red) triggers and early-warning indicators.
• Provide the economic basis for the annual review and reconciliation of Risk Appetite when the strategic plan, macro environment or regulatory regime changes materially.
  
  

3 Identification, Quantification & Valuation of the Risk Universe

Develop a model based approach to identify, quantify and assign values to the Banks interconnected risk universe, including but not limited to:

• Geopolitical, country and government-policy risk;
• Credit, concentration and settlement risk;
• Market risk in all its forms interest-rate, equity, foreign-exchange, commodity, credit-spread and inflation risk;
• Liquidity, capital / solvency, compliance / regulatory, reputational and strategic risk;
• Systemic risk interconnectedness and contagion, common exposures and correlated assets, substitutability (failure of too-big-to-fail counterparties), exogenous shocks and market volatility (e.g. sudden rate moves causing losses on bonds and sukuk, as in the 2023 US regional-bank failures); and
• Technological and emerging risks AI-driven cyber threats, complex regulatory change, climate-change impacts and ESG considerations.
  
  

4 Sectoral, SME & Supply-Chain Credit Economics

• Produce sectoral outlooks and intelligence that inform credit appetite, concentration limits and portfolio strategy.
• Model how small and medium enterprises form, scale and interact within supply chains, and the economic dynamics that drive their credit behaviour.
• Support the refinement of credit-scoring and risk-assessment models for the SME segment, strengthening their predictive quality.
• Contribute economic insight to SME client advisory where appropriate, helping safeguard the Banks exposures.
  
  

5 Consumer Behaviour, Product & Fintech-Disruption Intelligence

• Analyse how the economic and financial behaviour of consumers evolves over time, and the implications for deposit stability, financing demand and product design.
• Assess how fintech entrants and non-bank financial groups may disrupt traditional banking models, and advise Strategy, Treasury and Retail functions on risk and opportunity dimensions of that disruption.
• Bring behavioural and economic perspective at product design level, so that new offerings are grounded in evidence on evolving financial habits.
  
  

6 Board & External Economic Communication

• Author the economic-outlook and macro-risk sections of board and committee papers in a clear, decision-useful manner.
• Draft and contribute to the economic narrative of the Directors Report / Board of Directors letter in the Annual Report.
• Support investor, rating-agency and regulatory engagement by providing a coherent, credible economic narrative on the Banks position and outlook.